Monday, December 31, 2012

Graphs of Interest: Part II

With the second part, I would like to focus on the housing market - using housing starts, household real estate assets to disposable income, and mortgage debt, as common indicators of activity.
Housing Starts
Debt, both total and household, and housing starts.
Total debt (blue), household debt (green) and housing starts (red).

Household debt service payments.
Household debt service (blue) and new housing starts (red).
Residential investment as percent GDP and housing starts.
Private residential investment divided by GDP (blue) and new housing starts (red).
Construction employment and housing starts.
Construction employment as percent labor force (blue) and housing starts (red).

Household Real Estate Assets:Disposable Income
Real estate value to disposable income, and residential investment.
Household real estate assets divided by disposable income (blue) and residential investment (red).
Household real estate to disposable income, and household real estate to personal saving.
Household real estate assets divided by disposable income (blue) and household real estate assets divided by personal saving (red).
I think low inventory is sustaining current price levels.  This would make sense when looking at investment and debt service payments.  There are two other reasons why I think a true speculative bubble may be difficult to form.
Relatively high, sustained mortgage delinquency (at commercial banks).
Mortgage delinquency booked at commercial banks.
Falling mortgage debt to disposable income.
Mortgage debt to disposable income.

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