Thursday, April 7, 2016

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

New total debt series to replace the discontinued TCMDO

TCMDO is now discontinued. The Fed seems to be using a combination of Z.1 series. I have developed the following series to reconstruct the old TCMDO (Total Credit Market Debt Outstanding).

Sunday, May 10, 2015


I'm going out on a limb by saying this, but I don't think we will be seeing any inflationary pressure within the next few years. At least the kind that the Fed is tasked with adverting. That's just my untrained, amateur opinion of the situation (rate increase).

Monday, May 4, 2015

"My preference would be that we not raise rates until we're confident that we are going to see rates rise"

From the chronicles of O'rly?, the title words were those of Charles Evans - my new favorite Fed chairman. From Reuters:
With U.S. inflation uncomfortably low and the unemployment rate still too high, the Federal Reserve should hold off on raising short-term interest rates until early next year, a top Fed policymaker said on Monday. 
Still, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said, rate hikes could begin this year without harming the recovery. 
"My preference would be that we not raise rates until we're confident that we are going to see rates rise, and those rate increases be clearly in train," he told reporters after a speech here. "However having said that, it is the overall stance of monetary policy over a longer period of time that will ultimately be determinative, so a properly shallow path of increases, even if we were to increase rates sooner than I would like, could still be quite supportive of continued strong economic recovery, hopefully continued increases in inflation." 
The Fed can achieve its goals without any additional stimulus like a new bond-buying program, "as long as people sort of understand that we could go above 2 percent, that would be perfectly fine, as long as it is in a controlled sense, not anything outsized or too long-lasting, but neither would it have to be only three months, that type of thing."

Saturday, April 25, 2015

This June

This June both the Fed and the OPEC meet to discuss policy changes.  The Fed will announce its highly anticipated interest rate increase. How that may occur and how steep it may be is not going to be well understood right away. Though, the Fed could pullback some of its repos.

My experience as an adult tells me that the Fed is certain what actions it will take but uncertain how they will affect the economy.  My childhood experiences tell me that the Fed just doesn't understand me or the economy, and hates us both.  I wonder if both could be right.  I imagine OPEC will simply stick to its "no cuts" strategy - which seems to be effective in maintaining market share.

Thursday, April 9, 2015

How The Mighty Are Falling...Or Not

Well, this wasn't supposed to happen, or maybe it was. I can never quite figure our these private equity firms - KKR would be a good example.

Shale Producer Samson Says Bankruptcy May Be Best Option

Samson Resources Corp., an oil and natural gas producer controlled by private equity giant KKR & Co., warned investors that bankruptcy may be its best option as collapsing crude prices erode its ability to repay debt. 
Filing for Chapter 11 protection “may provide the most expeditious manner in which to effect a capital structure solution,” the Tulsa, Oklahoma-based company said Tuesday in its annual report. 
Samson told investors it’s at risk of defaulting on its debts, saying its financial condition raises “substantial doubt” that it can continue as a going concern, according to the filing. 
Other producers including Dune Energy Inc., BPZ Resources Inc. and Quicksilver Resources Inc. have also sought bankruptcy protection as a rapid decline in oil prices has led banks to rein in lending, drying up cash for drilling across North America.

Monday, February 2, 2015

Say Good Bye To The North Sea Oil Production

Shell will soon prepare 10 year program to possibly decommission some of the largest North Sea oil fields. From the FT:
Royal Dutch Shell will on Tuesday set out ambitious plans to decommission the North Sea’s Brent oilfield — one of the UK’s biggest — in a multibillion-dollar project over the next 10 years that could be followed by other closures after the plunge in oil prices. 
The Anglo-Dutch energy group will within days begin public consultation on a disposal plan for the “topside” of Brent Delta — one of four platforms in the field that gave its name to the international crude price benchmark. Shell is anxious to avoid a repeat of the public furore 20 years ago over its attempt to dump the Brent Spar oil storage buoy in the Atlantic Ocean.