Thursday, December 6, 2012

PCE: Addendum

I would like to add a couple graphs in regards to what I had posted earlier about PCE.  The first is a measure of personal income (PI) and personal outlays (A068RC1) relative to each other and relative to transfer payments (A063RC1).
Transfer payments (A063RC1) divided by personal outlays (A068RC1) (blue), transfer payments divided by personal income (red), and personal outlays divided by personal income (green).
Transfer payments can theoretically make up over 20% of the money used in personal outlays (I say theoretically because I suppose some of it could be saved).  Transfer payments are included in personal income calculations and therefore make up over 17% of personal income. 
During each recession shown in the graph, transfer payments as a percent of personal income have gone up, and only after the double-dip recession did that percent dip below its most recent pre-recession level.  Will it fall below the most recent pre-recession level of 14%?
The next chart shows transfer receipts for social insurance (unemployment insurance) divided by continued claim (unemployment insurance claim) - benefit per claim.  The income line is disposable personal income per capita.  The last line is the median duration of unemployment which I believe explains the large spike in benefits per claim.
Transfer payments to social insurance (W825Rc1) divided by number of continued claims (CCSA) (blue) and median duration of unemployment (red).  Disposable personal income per capita (green) for effect.

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