I would like to add a couple graphs in regards to what I had posted earlier about PCE. The first is a measure of personal income (PI) and personal outlays (A068RC1) relative to each other and relative to transfer payments (A063RC1).
|Transfer payments (A063RC1) divided by personal outlays (A068RC1) (blue), transfer payments divided by personal income (red), and personal outlays divided by personal income (green).|
Transfer payments can theoretically make up over 20% of the money used in personal outlays (I say theoretically because I suppose some of it could be saved). Transfer payments are included in personal income calculations and therefore make up over 17% of personal income.
During each recession shown in the graph, transfer payments as a percent of personal income have gone up, and only after the double-dip recession did that percent dip below its most recent pre-recession level. Will it fall below the most recent pre-recession level of 14%?
The next chart shows transfer receipts for social insurance (unemployment insurance) divided by continued claim (unemployment insurance claim) - benefit per claim. The income line is disposable personal income per capita. The last line is the median duration of unemployment which I believe explains the large spike in benefits per claim.