Tuesday, April 23, 2013

IMF and Egypt Work on Loan

Update.  Egypt has a lot of external debt, a lot of it accumulated through declining oil and gas production and rising food prices.  The IMF is now working with Egypt on a $4.8 billion loan.  From Yahoo via Reuters:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund and Egyptian officials said on Sunday they were working to reach a deal on a proposed $4.8 billion loan in "coming weeks," citing progress in weekend talks in Washington. 
"Work will continue with the objective of reaching agreement on an IMF stand-by arrangement to support the authorities' national economic program in the coming weeks," IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde and Egyptian finance officials said in a joint statement.
The loan, if agreed upon, would amount to about 5% of the IMF's outstanding credit to its members and 10% of Egypt's external debt.  Of course, this loan will not be supplied in domestic currency; Egypt is borrowing in foreign currency.  Consider this article from Ahram:
By adding Qatari loans to previous ones ($4 billion), Qatar’s share alone of Egypt’s official foreign debt (currently at $38.8 billion and will reach $41.8 billion once the new loans are added) has risen to more than 16 per cent. The impact of this on Egypt’s economic and regional policies cannot be ignored.
 Egypt has recently acquired loans from Qatar and Libya, but Egypt is not the only country with outstanding foreign currency debt.  I would wager to say most foreign currency debt is dollar debt.  If ever there were a time to put faith in the dollar (US economy), would now not be the time?

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  1. Surely more countries have external debts not only Egypt. This only shows the status of our economy today.

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  2. Certainly many countries have more external debt than Egypt, including the United States. However, much of Egypt's external debt is not denominated in their domestic currency - some of which was accumulated during Mubarak's reign (disputed by some Egyptians).

    Egypt is in an interesting situation because Libya has been supplying Egypt with both debt financing and oil for the past year. There will be a May 31st OPEC meeting to discuss quotas. Libya, UAE and Iraq are expecting to ask for quota increases.

    It may be entirely possible that OPEC's fixed 30 million barrel quota will be lifted. The resulting increase in supply may have two effects: lower oil prices and higher income for OPEC nations. This may allow Egypt to shed some of its dollar debt.

    However, it is entirely possible that other OPEC members may reduce their quotas and prices may not necessarily decrease even with a supply increase. And an increase in OPEC income may mean that there will be an increase in dollar investment by OPEC nations.

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