Friday, November 30, 2012

Short-Term US Government Interest Rates: 1920 to Present

2015 Ought to Be Good
I put together this very special chart, composed from a collection of four short-term interest rate series, and a variety of colors, available at FRED.  Interesting coincidence: shortly before the Great Depression and the Great Recession short-term interest rates were at 5%.  Notice the blip shortly before the late-1930s recession?  Kind of makes you wonder what 2015 is going to be like.

In homage of reputable blogger, Stagflationary Mark, it seems we may have both exponential and logarithmic trend failures.


  1. Replies
    1. Certainly some microcosmic/macrocosmic perspective built into the 80+ year trend in rates.

  2. You are too kind!

    You have also been added to my blog list. :)

  3. If I recall, the recession in 1937 was caused by Congress addressing their version of the fiscal cliff and trying to reign in government spending. Keynesians like Krugman point to that as evidence that we can't reign in spending right now. What he doesn't go on to say is that the US financial problems were not solved until WW2 purged the world of excess people and productive capacity. The world apparently has never figured out another way to solve this kind of problem.